Black Friday & Cyber Monday: A Black Hole of Fading Discounts
Holiday discounts that once reached 70–80% now rarely exceed 30–50%. As retailers stretch promotions across weeks and quietly scale back markdowns, the shopping “holidays” are losing both cultural weight and economic impact.
Black Friday and Cyber Monday once delivered unmistakable savings — the kind that justified waking up at 3 a.m., mapping out store routes, and treating the day like an annual tradition. For other families, it was just another Friday. But either way, the deals were genuine. Today, the excitement has faded, and the data explains why.
The Decline in Real Discounts
Black Friday discounts have become noticeably shallower. The average discount in 2024 hovered around 38%, according to research from Capital One Shopping. By 2025, peak discounts across major retailers fell even further, landing closer to 28%, as reported by Retail Dive.
An analysis by NBC Chicago found that 36% of Black Friday deals showed no real savings at all, compared with prices just a few weeks before.
Even more telling: shoppers spent $10.8 billion online during Black Friday 2024, yet average product prices increased and the number of units purchased per order declined, according to Retail Dive. Consumers are spending more, but receiving less value.
The Price Markup Problem
One of the biggest shifts behind modern Black Friday is a quiet, but widespread, tactic: pre-sale price markups.
Consumer watchdog Which? found that 98% of reviewed Black Friday deals were the same price or cheaper before the sale, revealing how retailers inflate prices in the weeks leading up to Black Friday to make discounts appear larger.
Price-tracking site CamelCamelCamel uncovered the same trend, showing that nearly 1 in 10 Amazon products cost more on Black Friday than earlier that year.
This tactic — sometimes called “fictitious pricing” — works because consumers expect dramatic savings and often don’t track price history. Retailers raise the price in October, “discount” it in November, and shoppers unknowingly celebrate paying regular price.
Why Discounts Keep Shrinking
Multiple retail trends are driving the decline:
Rising production, shipping, and labor costs
Extended sales windows that replace urgency with month-long deals
Retailers prioritizing profit margins over historic doorbuster losses
Consumers who continue to spend, even without steep discounts
Cyber Monday mirrors the same trajectory. Electronics discounts that once averaged 30–40% now average roughly 19%, and apparel markdowns that commonly reached 70% a decade ago now land closer to 25–30%.
Bottom Line
Black Friday and Cyber Monday remain major spending events — but not because the savings are extraordinary. Shoppers are spending more than ever, but getting less than they used to. Meanwhile, pre-sale price inflation and modest markdowns create a cycle that resembles a tradition on autopilot.
What was once a genuine holiday for deal hunters has become a marketing illusion for many consumers — swallowed by a black hole of fading discounts.
